If that's the case, then why does Rasmussen (Tom C's special friend, which is clearly biased towards conservatives) always track with all the other polls?
It clearly shows higher average numbers for Trump, but the up and down is pretty much the same as the other polls.
The story at the link didn't claim the polls didn't track the same or similar, only that the position of the trend was false - shifted be sampling tricks and other deceptions.
@Toolsmith: "The story at the link didn't claim the polls didn't track the same or similar, only that the position of the trend was false - shifted be sampling tricks and other deceptions."
There are polls biased both ways.
The reason I read 538 is they try to tease out the bias (by comparing historical poll results against actual voting booth results) and correct for it. And, after the election, they always do a post-mortem analysis of their own analysis and what they got right and what they got wrong. There is an extensive analysis of what they got wrong in 2016, more in-depth than any other on the internet.
I've looked over the 538 state by state data, and I see them as projecting the House to the Dems by only 9 seats. I think that is a pretty thin margin to come up with a 1 in seven scenario.
Forecast (current - it gets updated daily I believe) has the Dems winning 229-206, with a popular vote margin of +8.4%.
Given the past experiences, and the fact that at this point it doesn't really matter what the forecasters say.....other than as a game.....why bother. We'll know in short order.
It's like listening to arguments over who will make it to the super bowl, and who will win. Idle chatter to no real effect other than filling empty air.
1. Unless Trump engages in some sort of military incursion (troops, helicopters, drones…) into Mexico, we here little if anything more about “the caravan” after Tuesday.
2. Neither Golden or Poliquin take 50% and the 2nd district House race goes to ranked choice voting. Several weeks later Golden is determined to be the winner. Poliquin sues. The case ends up in the Supreme Court and their decision determines the future of ranked choice voting in this country.
That's good reasoning, but I'm hoping Polquin takes it outright.
If ranked choice voting goes to the supreme court imagine the outrage on the left when Kavanaugh casts the deciding vote that it IS unconstitutional....So much fun in the offing.
Suddenly, the MSM sounds much less confident.
Snowflakes out in the rain?
Heavy rain forecast for most of Maine tomorrow. How does that affect the results? Specifically, will millennials go out to vote in the rain?
I think it may wash away the "blue wave", locally anyway. (That should be "red wave", but the MSM deceit dictates disassociation with the historical color of socialism/communism. No other place in the world uses blue for leftist parties - those parties proudly wave their red flags.)
How's the weather for election day elsewhere?
One result guaranteed if the left loses...
Pictures truly do speak louder than words.
@jack: "1. Unless Trump engages in some sort of military incursion (troops, helicopters, drones…) into Mexico, we here little if anything more about “the caravan” after Tuesday."
Totally. What's even more amazing is some of the tinfoil hat conservative sites are saying it's the left that is constructing this, when it clearly favors the right. If anyone is bussing them up here, it's the alt-righters.
@Toolsmith: "Suddenly, the MSM sounds much less confident."
Relevant video clip:
37 seat net gain for D's in the House. (We'll finally get to see Trump's tax returns!)
Janet Mills clears the 8 year old stench of stale bourbon and bigotry from the Blaine House.
Post-election finds Robert Swan Mueller III doling out indictments like candy. Fasten your seatbelts!
I've seen 3 totally dishonest Dem ads repeatedly tonite. Every hour, same ads. Big media buy.
I think the belt tightening will be on Democrat straight jackets
PTSD before the event?
Ugh. My predictions were not very good. Well, congrats to the 'rats, but this is going to make the government worse.
Statistically there were a few outliers but for the most part the results were in line with the polls.
Yes, it was close to Nate Silver's average prediction. I think his prediction by race had the Dems with about seats 8 over majority, I don't know what the final count will be, but it will be close to that, maybe a few more when the close calls come in.
I do find it interesting that in Texas Bob O'Rourke raised about $70 million and lost with about 4 million votes. That's $17.50 a vote. Incredible.
So the lefties had 24/7 fawning news coverage, a boatload of money, and still lost there.
I got several races all wrong, but overall it was a good Election Day.
Golden/Poliquin is going down to the wire - what a nail biter. I was impressed with the voter turnout nationwide and impressed with the women elected to so many offices!
It was very much like the usual mid-term backslide away from the party in the WH.
Close to the final polls, but nothing at all like the hype a few months ago.
Not a blue wave at all...
Janet Mills: "I'm looking forward to bending the arc of the moral universe towards justice." (Or thereabouts....)
Translation: My highest three priorities are redistribution, higher taxes, and more welfare programs.
In other words, redistribution X 3.
Trump's putrid base has shrunk. I call that a win.
Looks like the good people of Maine will have the opportunity to see if Mills is a person of her word. Personally I think that even the liberals will be in pain when the full array of her tax increases and social agenda unfold. I'm sorry there was no upset for Anquish , but it was no surprise.I am a little surprised about the Poloquin /Golden price being so close.....
What I really don't like is that the rankings are not reported.
At this point, we have no idea what the 2nd, 3rd & 4th choice stats for Bond or Hoar voters were... no info at all.
There are controls in place to protect votes... but what about 2nd/3rd/4th choices? Is it even illegal to diddle those numbers?
Those stats should have been counted & posted right along with the front page votes. If they'd done that, we'd know the results NOW. And there'd be no chance for any number nonsense behind the scenes.
Hey, at least the Portland carpetbagger didn't win...
Bond doesn’t reside in the district she hopes to represent, though she said she wants to move with her husband and two boys out of Portland soon. One reason she’s waiting, Bond said, is that if she emerges on top on Election Day, she might want to buy a home in northern Maine because she won’t have to worry anymore about getting to legal proceedings across the state.
Why is this even allowed? At least the others live here...
Trump's putrid base has shrunk. I call that a win.
Well, not as much "shrinkage" as O'bammy had on his first midterm. Obummer lost the House, Senate AND majority of governorships.
Compared to that, Trump is livin' large.