2018 Midterm Predictions

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johnw
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Last seen: 7 hours 43 min ago
Joined: 03/11/2009 - 10:06am
I felt a vague sense of

I felt a vague sense of relief for about twenty minutes this morning that the election was over , then they started running for 2020..... when does the first sign go up?

Toolsmith
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Last seen: 36 min 57 sec ago
Joined: 07/14/2016 - 11:22am
At least some stop running

At least some stop running long enough to actually *do* something... but not all.

I would like campaign signs, buttons, and stickers to be made out of photo-degradeable materials... so once out in the sun, they start decomposing. A guaranteed freedom-from-political-signs deadline, so to speak.

Economike
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Last seen: 16 min 32 sec ago
Joined: 11/28/2006 - 9:09am
"Trump' s putrid base...."

"Trump' s putrid base...."

Expat knows that the political divide is between the morally superior and the others who won't own up to their deplorable moral state.

Right, expat?

johnw
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Last seen: 7 hours 43 min ago
Joined: 03/11/2009 - 10:06am
Putrid base ,deplorables

Putrid base ,deplorables ,racists,Somehow once again we managed to push our candidates to the top of that stinking shitheap we call the senate. Squishy Schumer can caterwaul all he wants second place is still the first loser.......

taxfoe
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Last seen: 19 hours 33 min ago
Joined: 03/22/2000 - 1:01am
Look at . .

Look at . .

MITTENS!

Mitt smoked 'em.

I'm using Mitt to draw you to the ABC results. It seems to be a good source as it was Drudge's go to link Tuesday. Look at the Gov and Sen races, both statewide. Then, look at the underlying house districts, all local and overwhelmingly red. It's all laid out for you and not hard to discern that the big city populations drive the statewide results.

We need an Electoral College for statewide races.

Overall, I'm pleased like Trump with the results. Load the courts with judges who will legislate what Congress dares not take on.

anonymous_coward
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Last seen: 2 days 20 hours ago
Joined: 10/21/2016 - 12:18pm
@Tom C: "Yes, it was close to

@Tom C: "Yes, it was close to Nate Silver's average prediction. I think his prediction by race had the Dems with about seats 8 over majority, I don't know what the final count will be, but it will be close to that, maybe a few more when the close calls come in."

It's worth noting that the House model typically doesn't do as well as the senate/presidential models simply because each race has fewer voters involved, the polling is sparser, and since weird local effects can have a sway on the outcome, it's hard for his staff to examine each one.

In past years, they've skipped modelling the house election because it's harder to do correctly.

I guess since there is a lot more coverage and more polls done this year they decided to do it.

anonymous_coward
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Last seen: 2 days 20 hours ago
Joined: 10/21/2016 - 12:18pm
@Toolsmith: "Those stats

@Toolsmith: "Those stats should have been counted & posted right along with the front page votes. If they'd done that, we'd know the results NOW. And there'd be no chance for any number nonsense behind the scenes."

Yeah it's incredibly stupid that a first year computer science major could write a program to instantaneously calculate the result and yet it takes several days for them to come up with the correct result.

anonymous_coward
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Last seen: 2 days 20 hours ago
Joined: 10/21/2016 - 12:18pm
@Tom C: "Well, not as much

@Tom C: "Well, not as much "shrinkage" as O'bammy had on his first midterm. Obummer lost the House, Senate AND majority of governorships."

Sure, except the senate map heavily favored the GOP.

Which, of course, means that the senate map heavily favors the Dems in 2020 and 2022.

The biggest GOP victory was keeping the Florida and Ohio governorships, which allows them to keep a solid jerrymandering bonus.

However, since they lost Michigan and Wisconsin, some of the jerrymandering that gave them house dominance for the past 6 years is going to be gone.

Net is, be prepared for a blue legislature over the next decade.

Edit: correctness of terminology

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