So here's a question about the Second District

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Sheesh
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Joined: 01/26/2014 - 7:18pm
So here's a question about the Second District

Been a while since I checked in here, largely because I now live a bit further south in New England and frankly, the cast of characters here at AMG, at least in the few checks I've made of it in the past year or two, seems to have diminished to a tiny handful of regulars.

Anyway: the Second District race looks like a shoo-in for the first real test of ranked choice voting (RCV). Hoar will be first to go, but with 2% of the total vote that's not going to be enough to push either Poliquin or Golden over the top, so Bond will go too.

I could be wrong on this, but a casual search through Maine media would suggest that Hoar would be likely to attract a largely progressive voter base, and that Bond's following would tend somewhat more centrist or libertarian.

For those of you who have followed this race more diligently than I, I'd appreciate your read on how it's likely to shake out (and yes, I know RCV is really just a clever gambit to elect more Democrats and progressives).

Toolsmith
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Joined: 07/14/2016 - 11:22am
All the too-clever-for-your

All the too-clever-for-your-own-good decision systems are subject to manipulation. Running extra candidates who can prune off sections of the opponents' support, and then get added into your support, is one method. The only way to gauge which of the two top candidates is actually favored by most is a run-off. Any other method can be manipulated...

https://sites.google.com/site/stephendownesmartin/puppet-mastery
The above is targeted at military decisions, but is (as mentioned) just as valid for other decisions. It's an interesting moral position to state that usage of decision systems not based on facts should require participants to deliberately manipulate the results to produce the outcome they see as most desirable.
You can be sure that's going to happen... because it can happen.

In the case of ME2, Bond is targeted at centrist support which could not stomach Golden but were on the fence about Poliquin... and could well deliver that support to Golden.

In places like California, with its "jungle primaries", running two candidates with moderate support instead of one with strong support can result in eliminating the other parties from the ballot altogether - guaranteeing a party win. Beware anything that limits your choices at election time *by* *law*. Especially when this results in dozens of elections where there is no actual choice.

Economike
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Joined: 11/28/2006 - 9:09am
Hey, Sheesh.

Hey, Sheesh.

Good to hear from you.

Calvin
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Joined: 05/15/2001 - 12:01am
New Position, Title & Name.

New Position, Title & Name.

So Janet was elected. Now she has a new position, new title and even a new name. You can use it starting immediately. It will be easy to learn every time you have your breakfast cereal.
Are you ready for this ?

GENERAL MILLS

Matt
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Joined: 01/21/2008 - 6:21pm
It wasn’t funny in the other

It wasn’t funny in the other thread, either.

Melvin Udall
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Joined: 05/01/2002 - 12:01am
I was thinking Fiber One, or

I was thinking Fiber One, or Blue Buffalo, or Green Giant might make more sense.

johnw
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Joined: 03/11/2009 - 10:06am
Like most leftists Jammit

Like most leftists Jammit Mills has never had an original thought in her life,but that poses no problems she will be taking her marching orders directly from Pelosi.

Sheesh
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Joined: 01/26/2014 - 7:18pm
You too, Mike.

You too, Mike.

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